North Korea’s participation in the war on Russia’s side is a sign of weakness

The pact between Pyongyang and Moscow on the Ukraine war could prove counterproductive for both states for several reasons.

• The US government is signaling that there will be no US response if North Korean troops fight alongside Russia in the Ukraine war.
• It remains unclear what North Korea demanded in return for sending its armed forces.
• Support from North Korea not only risks tensions with China and NATO, but also shows that Russia no longer has enough soldiers.
• This article is available for the first time in German – the magazine first published it on November 5, 2024 Foreign policy.

The latest development in Russia’s war of conquest in Ukraine is North Korea’s provision of troops to the Kremlin. The US government says at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers have already been stationed in Russia’s Kursk region, which has been partially occupied by American forces since the summer.

On Monday (November 4), Ukraine confirmed the first encounters with North Korean troops on the front. While it is still unclear whether all troops will take part in the fighting – and whether additional soldiers will follow – North Korea’s entry into a European war undoubtedly represents a significant escalation.

Reaction to the stationing of North Korean troops in Kursk: The US government has so far reacted cautiously

The US government under Joe Biden has responded to this expansion of the war by once again signaling its own fear of escalation. For example, instead of lifting the mandatory requirement for the Ukrainians to use Western weapons, the Pentagon simply announced that it was “increasingly concerned.”

When asked whether Ukraine should strike back against North Korean troops, President Joe Biden replied: “If they invade Ukraine, yes.” In doing so, the White House signaled to the Kremlin that there will be no U.S. response if North Korean troops enter Kursk fought – which in turn would free up Russian troops for use in Ukraine and negate the effect of the Ukrainian summer offensive in Russia.

The West reacted too late: arms deliveries between Moscow and Pyongyang were predictable

Ukraine’s allies have had many months to prepare for North Korea’s expansion of support for Russia’s war. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Pyongyang to sign a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – an alliance in name only.

Half of all artillery shells used by Russian forces in the war, as well as ballistic missiles, are now supplied by North Korea, which has become by far the most important partner in Russia’s war effort, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

Reports of North Korean soldiers arriving in Russia for training first emerged in October. The West could have used all this time to exacerbate the fragility of Russian capabilities manifested in its dependence on North Korea, find ways to cut off supplies, and help Ukraine take tougher action against a weakened Russian military .

Pact between Putin and Kim Jong-un: It is unclear what support Russia has offered on the front

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui calls Russia’s invasion a “just holy war.” But we don’t yet know whether the North Korean troops are more than just symbolic evidence that Russia is not completely isolated internationally – or whether they are the first wave in a pipeline of manpower to replenish the Russian ranks that have recently joined Casualties were decimated at a rate of about 1,000 per day.

We also don’t yet know what price North Korea has demanded for its support. Was the pact just about combat experience for North Korea’s armed forces, who have never seen real combat? Or has Kim traded his troops for a technology pipeline that will help make North Korea’s nuclear weapons more precise and longer-ranged so they can be aimed at the United States?

According to intelligence reports from South Korea, the North is seeking experience, modernization, cash payments and a reciprocal commitment from Russia to send its armed forces in the event of a war on the Korean peninsula.

Major losses in the Ukraine war: Putin is running out of soldiers

However, there are reasons to believe that North Korea’s actions may not be the positive signal that Russia and North Korea seem to expect. First, the fact that Russia requested foreign troops suggested that it no longer had enough soldiers of its own to continue the war.

The number of Russian casualties since the full-scale invasion began is estimated at more than 600,000, and the military has already resorted to the forced conversion of ordinary conscripts into contract soldiers to maintain the fiction of a volunteer-led war.

Putin fears carrying out a general mobilization to avoid drafting conscripts from Moscow and St. Petersburg, where Russia’s elites live and protests could actually shake his rule. Buying the consent of the families of fallen soldiers already consumes six percent of the Russian state budget, and only significantly higher disadvantages and signing bonuses have ensured that new recruits keep coming. The fact that the Kremlin is relying on cheaper or more available foreign troops suggests at least that time is running out for Russia to continue the war.

Russia risks tensions with China: Beijing warns against third-party interference in the Ukraine war

The second reason why the deployment of North Korean troops could prove problematic for Russia is that they could lead to tensions with China. Closer cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang could cause Beijing to worry about its ability to control the latter over much more important issues in East Asia.

China is already nervous about North Korea’s actions, which require closer cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, and if North Korea oversteps its borders, it will only increase China’s organization over its waning influence over North Korea.

Russia promoted last month’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, as its breakout from Western-enforced isolation, but at the summit Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned against “adding fuel to the fire” and advised against third-party interference in Ukraine. While this may just be an attempt to maintain Beijing’s image as some kind of uninvolved party, it could also indicate some frustration in China as Russia looks for ways to avoid being China’s junior partner by using North Korea as an alternative to over-reliance on China China chooses.

Nor was China alone in diluting Russia’s ambitions to use the BRICS meeting to support its war. The summit declaration contained only a single reference to war, emphasized the principles of the United Nations Charter and welcomed “relevant mediation proposals.” Participating states also rejected Russia’s proposal for an alternative financial settlement mechanism that would bypass Western sanctions.

South Korea reacts: sending military advisors and weapons to Ukraine possible

A third reason why the entry of North Korean troops into the war alongside Russia may prove to be a costly achievement is that it appears to have led South Korea to consider sending military advisers and weapons to support Ukraine. The South Korean military is first-class: so disciplined, competent, well-trained and well-equipped that it would decisively win a conventional war against the North.

If South Korea entered the war on Ukraine’s side, the performance of both armies would reveal the weakness of the North Korean military, which would in turn impact the Korean Peninsula. Even if South Korea does not send troops to support Ukraine, it will certainly send intelligence officials to assess the performance of North Korean forces, which would benefit defense planning at home. Any weapons South Korea sends from its vast, modern arsenal may not be subject to those imposed by the Biden administration.