How great is the danger to democracy now?

Analyze

Trump’s re-election has sent shockwaves across the liberal West.

Václav Havel was not only the celebrated hero of the democratic revolution in Czechoslovakia, he was also a renowned writer. Before he became president of his country, he was imprisoned several times because of his democratic beliefs, because he repeatedly fought against the Soviet occupation and for more freedom. In his novel “Summer Meditations” he also states: “On one point I will never give in: that it is meaningless to work for a good cause.”

With the end of the Cold War, hope arose that Havel’s fate was a thing of the past. The term “third wave” made the rounds among political scientists. What this meant was that more and more states were becoming committed to democracy. In fact, the war died down between the end of the 1970s and the turn of the century. The USA was not only the “mother of democracy”, it was also the role model for many emerging countries.

The campaign against Iraq, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, and the idea of ​​the neoconservatives around President George W. Bush that a democratic state could be created in the Middle East through “nation building” have put an initial damper on this idea. Shortly afterwards, the financial crisis destroyed the illusion that the West would prescribe itself the bitter reform medicine that it had forced on the emerging countries after the Asian crisis.

As a result, enthusiasm for democracy and the rule of law in the spirit of Western liberalism noticeably decreased. “According to Freedom House’s planned investigation, support for freedom is in decline,” writes Larry Diamond in Foreign Affairs magazine. He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and is considered one of the leading experts on democracy.

The re-election of Donald Trump not only accelerated this decline in support for democracy, it may have dealt it its death blow. “Trump’s decisive victory leaves admirers of America’s long democratic journey fearful of what is to come for this country and the rest of the world,” Diamond said.

All eyes are on the USA

When it comes to democracy on a global level, the last few years have seen an alternation of light and shadow. The two declared enemies of the West, Russia and China, managed to get some countries on their side. On the other hand, autocratic rulers like Narendra Modi in India suffered unexpected setbacks, and in Poland the anti-EU conservative government was even replaced by a liberal one.

“But throughout 2024, all eyes will be on the US elections. They are seen as the most important indicator of the future of democracy on a global scale,” notes Diamond. “Pro-democracy advocates have noted with disappointment and growing horror that Trump has descended ever deeper into the depths of bigotry and fear and vowed revenge.”

The fear is justified. Trump has already stated that neither Mike Pompeo nor Nikki Haley will be appointed to his cabinet. In the case of the former UN ambassador, this was to be expected. Although she also dozed off in the end, she was the only Republican who showed anything like resistance to him. The rejection of the former Secretary of State and CIA director is a sign that the faction around JD Vance, Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson is gaining influence. Pompeo is considered conservative – also conceited and arrogant – but he has always advocated a hard line against Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Also worrying is the fact that Trump has already announced that he does not want to approve the members of his administration through the Senate and thus remove them from democratic control. “We need to set these positions IMMEDIATELY,” Truth Social, its social platform, said. At the same time, the same forces that prevented Pompeo are trying to ensure that the new Senate majority leader is not named John Thune or John Cornyn. Both are considered favorites of the outgoing Mitch McConnell and the old Grand Old Party establishment.

The almost boundless enthusiasm that Trump and the MAGA world show for Elon Musk cannot spark joy among democratically minded people either. As is well known, Musk will be given the task of rigorously cleaning out the administration and thus saving the state two billion dollars. The richest man may lack nothing – except empathy. He describes himself as mildly autistic, and after taking over Twitter he fired 80 percent of the staff. He apparently has the same plans for the federal administration.

After his surprisingly clear victory, Trump was conciliatory. He wanted to be a president for all Americans, there was no talk of revenge or retaliation. You shouldn’t be fooled by this. Gwenda Blair, a biographer of the Trump family, asks the rhetorical question in the New York Times: “Will Trump strike back? Naturally. The only question is how he will do this and who it will affect. (…) He’s an eye-for-an-eye guy, and he’s fuming about what has happened to him in the last four years.”

Tones like those of the conservative influencer Mike Davis can already be heard from the MAGA environment. He lets it be known via social media: “I want to drag the dead bodies of my political opponents through the streets, burn them and throw them off the wall.”

The fact that Trump will enter his second term far better prepared than his first has already been well pointed out, whether or not “Project 2025” goes. How far American democracy can withstand what lies ahead remains to be seen. “It will be years before we know the answer,” believes Larry Diamond.