Migration trends could limit Fiji’s remittance growth – FBC News

Remittances from Fiji have increased since 2022, with total private inflows rising 15.4 percent to $871 million in the year to June, before rising to $1,095 million in 2023 and $1,231 billion in 2024 US dollar rose.

Most of this increase is due to the rapidly growing Pacific Australia Labor Mobility program.

The ANZ Pacific Economist Dr. However, Kishti Sen predicts that remittances will continue to increase in 2024-25, but that will be at an all-time high for a while.

According to Dr. According to Sen, the flow of overseas migration is reversing as demand for additional workers in Australia and New Zealand has been exhausted.

He added that the number of students moving from Fiji to Australia fell sharply in 2023-24, while the number of new arrivals to PALM also fell significantly.

Dr. Sen says this trend, along with the return of students after completing courses from the second half of 2025, is likely to result in net overseas migration increasing Fiji’s population.

He highlights that Fiji’s population loss due to overseas migration will decline cumulatively from 2025 to 2026, limiting the upside potential for remittance growth.

However, he emphasizes that it will be a sideways movement rather than a downtrend.

Sen said the number of PALM programs in Australia could stabilize at current levels as workers can stay for up to four years.

The ANZ Economist says remittances may increase if the number of new PALM arrivals increases significantly.

The increasing number of PALM workers fueled the growth of remittances in Fiji, an important source of income for many Fijian households.

According to Dr. Sen, higher remittances improve household disposable income, support consumer demand and increase foreign exchange reserves.

Remittances now account for about 10% of Fiji’s GDP, more than double the 4.6% in 2019.

On average, around 15% of household budgets are financed through remittances.

Sen states that this “family bank” has also traditionally helped to stabilize demand during times of economic shocks and, in particular, to cover job losses, as happened in 2016 after Cyclone Winston and at the height of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was the case.

Sen adds that over time and regardless of external events, however, remittances have largely increased in line with the increase in overseas migration, mainly of permanent migrants.