Toledo vs. Purdue prediction, tips and odds for today’s college basketball game

The Purdue Boilermakers hope to return to winning ways tonight when they host the Toledo Rockets in West Lafayette.

Find out why the Rockets are in for another long day in my Toledo vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for December 29th!

Toledo vs Purdue Prediction

My best choice
Purdue -21.5 (-110 at bet365)

My analysis
Among players who average at least 20 minutes per game, the Toledo Rockets do not have a player on their roster who is taller than 6 feet tall.

This is a big reason why the Rockets rank 311th in offensive rebound rate and 251st in defensive rebound rate and struggle to defend inside the arc.

This is also a big reason why I expect the Purdue Boilermakers to dominate this match and take an easy win. The Boilermakers have suffered four losses this season, and all of them came against teams that were physical with them and pressured them into mistakes. As a result, they had a turnover rate of over 22% in three of those losses.

The Rockets rank north of 250 in turnover percentage on defense, and Purdue’s size and strength advantage will make it easier for them to move the ball. Once they get there, the Boilermakers should be happy to have players like 6-foot-1 Trey Kaufman-Renn and his 29% usage rate.

Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th in EFG%. It’s also making 3-point shots at the 16th-best clip in the country, which would hurt the Rockets if they collapse inside. And if not, then guys like Kaufman-Renn will do damage against a defense that ranks 333rd in FG% inside the arc.

And while recent results might make you wary of putting up that many points, keep in mind the defenses Purdue faced. The Boilermakers faced three top-20 KenPom teams in a row, with all three opponents ranking in the top 11 in defensive ratings.

The Rockets held Houston to just 4 of 24 from distance in their last game and lost by 29 points.

Purdue’s superior outside shooting and physical superiority will allow this team to bounce back and add some positivity to the team. The Boilermakers can easily compete against one of the worst defense and rebounding teams in the country.

Same game between Toledo and Purdue

Purdue -21.5

Trey Kaufman-Renn 20+ points

Braden Smith Over 13.5 points

Braden Smith leads college basketball in assist rate but only had 12 total against Auburn and Texas A&M as they bullied him relentlessly. And while Toledo isn’t a great defensive team, it ranks 45th nationally in assists per FG.

That means Smith will likely finish a few more of his drives where he would normally finish. And he averages four more points in Purdue’s wins this year than in losses. He also averages more than 14 points per game at home. I want him to reach this floor.

He’s not the only one who will punish this Toledo defense. Kaufman-Renn has had two subpar games in a row compared to his usual standards and is ready for a comeback game against a team that will have difficulty defending him.

The forward has a 72.5% shooting rate on attempts near the rim and a solid offensive rebound rate means he’ll likely get a few extra chances against the smaller Toledo line. If you take into account that substitute Will Berg will miss the game, there are still more minutes left. He will surpass the 20 mark here for the fifth time this season.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Toledo vs. Purdue odds

Toledo vs Purdue live odds

Toledo vs. Purdue opening odds

• Spread: Toledo +21 (-110) | Purdue -21 (-110)
• Money line: Toledo +1600 | Purdue -5000
• Over/Under: Over 155 (-110) | Under 155 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365

Things to know about the Toledo vs. Purdue betting trend.

Purdue has covered the 1H spread in 24 of its last 38 games (+9.15 units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Toledo vs. Purdue.

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