Why the Big 12 and ACC need ASU to cover against Texas

The little guys, as far as you can call them little, start to falter.

SMU was soundly beaten by Penn State, Clemson couldn’t handle Texas, and the ACC went 0-2 in the College Football Playoff.

Now it’s the Big 12’s turn. Its only participant, Arizona State, is a double-digit underdog against the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl.

It’s easy to see where this is going, both this week and in the long term:

If the Sun Devils are forced off the field Wednesday morning, the weaker members of the Power Four will have lost far more than three playoff games. They will have given up what little influence they have in the upcoming CFP negotiations.

The current playoff format expires after next season, leaving a blank slate for fall 2026 and beyond.

The next version could have 12 teams or 14 teams.

There could be many or few automatic bids.

There could be plenty of space for the Big 12 and ACC…or limited space.

Discussions are expected to begin next month when the CFP’s administrative committee (i.e., conference commissioners) meets in Atlanta for the national championship game.

One possibility — a distinct possibility, in fact — is the eventual creation of a revised format that grants both the SEC and the Big Ten either three or four automatic bids an automatic bid to both the ACC and the Big 12.

Poor performances from the weaker members of the Power Four will undermine their case for justice entering the next issue. The ACC has already excelled in head-to-head duels against the Big Ten and the SEC. Now comes the Big 12’s chance.

Arizona State is the last team standing, the last chance to achieve competitive balance.

If the Sun Devils suffer the same fate as SMU and Clemson — if the Big 12 champion loses by multiple touchdowns to the SEC runner-up in the playoffs — the impact could go far beyond the outcome of a single game.

To the picks…

Season: 72-58-2
Five Star Special: 9-7

All tips against the spread
Lines taken from VegasInsider.com

(All times Pacific)

Boise State (+10.5) vs. Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)
Start: Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: This isn’t quite the mismatch many are predicting, and Ashton Jeanty is a threat to score from anywhere (like he did against Oregon in Week 2). The key issue for the Broncos is getting quarterback Maddux Madsen comfortable and staying in rhythm. Without the threat of an aerial game, they will struggle to move the ball consistently against an elite defensive front that keeps Jeanty in check. Pick: Penn State